STRATEGIC COMBINATORICS

 

We are not an empire. We are 27 crowns. No one will stop the flow of politics from one waterside to the other. Our true strength lies in the chorus of our different languages.

The Transactional Storm: Assessing the Vision of a Fragmented Europe. It is a stark proposition that cuts to the very heart of the post-World War II international order, challenging the foundational wisdom of the transatlantic alliance. To address it with wisdom requires moving beyond simple conspiracy and engaging with the strategic calculus, ideological shifts, and economic forces at play.

At the core of the "America First" vision, articulated through rhetoric and tariffs, is a distinctly transactional and zero-sum vision of international relations. From this perspective, the European Union is often seen less as an essential partner for democracy and more as an economic competitor and a free rider on US security guarantees.

The Competitor: The EU, as a powerful, integrated regulatory bloc, is seen as directly challenging American economic dominance, particularly in areas like digital regulation and trade.

The Burden: Decades of demanding greater defense spending from NATO members culminates in the argument that the U.S. is "over-committed" in Europe. The new strategic focus is on the Western Hemisphere and China, leading to a calculated deprioritization of Europe's security.

By supporting and encouraging "patriotic" or nationalist, far-right parties in Europe—as noted in recent policy documents—the U.S. administration aims to cultivate an internal resistance to the EU's centripetal, multilateralist trajectory. A fragmented, internally-strained EU is less capable of forming a unified front, making it easier for the U.S. to negotiate on its own terms.

 

Russia's long-standing strategic objective is the fragmentation and destabilization of the European project—to weaken NATO and the EU, diminish collective sanctions power, and restore a sphere of influence. Thus, the "benefit" to Russia is an unearned geopolitical dividend: U.S. policy, driven by domestic and Indo-Pacific priorities, creates the very disunity and uncertainty on the European continent that Moscow seeks.

While the explicit goal may not be the physical "destruction" of the EU, the methodology employed—supporting nationalist dissent and withdrawing security guarantees—risks producing a disastrous outcome that serves both American short-term resource reallocation and Russia's long-term geopolitical interests.

The fate of the European Union, born from the ruins of two world wars, now rests on its ability to transcend its internal divisions and articulate a single, powerful voice in a world that no longer values its existence as a fait accomplished.

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